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The purpose to develop an econometric model for the Brazilian States (or five geographical regions) was to clarify the contribution of tourism as an economic factor. This required some preliminary considerations.

The question was:

- Who wants this model?

- Who will use it?

- Which will be the technical platform to use it?

- What should be the benefit of the model?

- Which are the data available to elaborate the model?

- Which are the technical necessities to elaborate the model?

To some of the questions no reliable answer was possible, especially not from a technical consultant who is not familiar with the general conditions of the country involved and the special circumstances of the organization the project management has to cooperate with, since he was not involved in the project definition and preparation.

- The model was developed for the benefit of the State Tourist Organizations. They should be enabled to use this model in their effort to promote the tourist trade in the different regions and states.

- The persons to use it would be in the first place the staff members of these organizations, whereas the persons to be informed about the subjects dealt with in the model, would be decision makers, entrepreneurs in the tourist business in the first place, economists, statisticians, people interested in tourism, econometry, statistics, modelling etc. in the second place.

- The technical platform should be a lean as possible without sacrificing the possibilities of advanced micro-computer technology.

- The benefit of the model should be simple and interactive use of its facilities. The model user should be enabled to see past influences and reasons of the development of economical indicators. The model should enable the user to project future developments of economical events in a reasonable time span.

- The data available for the elaboration of the model proved to be rather inhomogeneous for the different states. There have been economical censuses however in an interval of 5 years in the past, which can be considered a reliable and consistent data base. Unfortunately the 1990 census was denied financing by the Collor-Government. The next census however is scheduled for 1995 and should considerably improve the data situation as far as economical data are concerned. The situation about tourism data is different from state to state. Whereas the data about international tourists are rather homogeneous (EMBRATUR conducts a regular survey three times a year, countrywide since 1985) the data about Brazilian tourists in the states depend on the efforts of the state tourist’s organization. Some states have never conducted any survey (like Rio de Janeiro, but there was once a survey about tourism in the city), other have just started (Distrito Federal), others have conducted surveys for some years to find out about the demand of national tourists within the state (Parana, Bahia, Amazonas).

The zip File contains a version of TURINFO running on WIndows XP and using EXCEL 2000 or later. In order to run it do the following:
  • Extract the zip file
  • Open the EXCEL file
  • Click on the opening button or run the macro TURINFO_Start
  • Follow Instructions from user Manual
  • Read how the model was developed
TURINFO zip File

TURINFO Users Manual (port.)

TURINFO Model and Development (eng.)

La version francaise n'est pas disponible au moment  
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